HOG - Harley-Davidson rallies after Morgan Stanley upgrades to an overweight rating

2023-03-21 07:10:21 ET

Morgan Stanley upgraded Harley-Davidson ( NYSE: HOG ) to an Overweight rating from Equal Weight on increased confidence in the Hardwire strategy, a containment of electrification risk, and attractive valuation

Analyst Adam Jonas and team also have increased conviction in Chairman and CEO Jochen Zeitz's focus on generating cash flow from the core motorcycle business, while also prudently managing the risks of the Livewire business.

"Taking over as CEO at the start of COVID, Jochen Zeitz used the crisis to drive improved efficiency in the HOG business model, including rationalizing product lines, consolidating the dealer network, concentrating growth initiatives, and carving out the LiveWire business. Other changes include providing stock options to factory workers and focusing the business on its highly loyal core motorcycle market."

The positive view on HOG from Morgan Stanley includes much of the negative outlook already being priced in for the captive finco.

The firm thinks HOG's stock price is attractively valued relative to the past five years at ~8.6X 2023 P/E and ~5.1X 2023 industrial EBITDA. Amid a potential downturn, Morgan Stanley believes HOG's multiples should hold better in comparison to prior recessions. Morgan Stanley assigned a price target of $70 to HOG.

Shares of Harley-Davidson ( HOG ) jumped 4.31% in premarket trading on Tuesday to land at $39.17.

Read a bullish breakdown of Harley-Davidson from Seeking Alpha contributor Geoffrey Seiler.

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