OILU - Here's Where I Think Oil Is Headed

• We are entering a tough macro environment.
• Oil demand is starting to show signs of weakness.
• Refining margins are likely to fall over the summer with nearly ~5 million b/d of additional refinery throughput.
• If refining margins fall, and if oil demand is decent, then crude has more room to rally. But we think a price band is a more likely scenario ($115 to $130).
• This is a great environment for energy stocks, so they remain a buy.

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