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There's a renewed danger of recession this year, and to explain why it's worth revisiting the recent past. I have argued that we normally would have had a recession last year, but a nimble Fed was able to adjust policy in time to prevent the recession and create America's first expansion of more than a decade.
On many occasions, Fed policymakers make contractionary errors late in a business cycle. The yield curve inversion such as occurred in March 2019 is normally a pretty good recession forecaster, but not perfect. It depends on how the Fed