JBGS - Home price growth will rise at slower pace in 2020 2021 NAR panel says

More than 20 economic and housing experts surveyed by the National Association of Realtors see annual median home price growth slowing to 8.0% in 2021 and 5.5% in 2022, down from the 15.5% increase posted in 2020.While slowing, the price increases still outpace the expected inflation rate of 1.7% in 2021, which is up from 1.2% in 2020, the latest available data for 2020; inflation is expected to reach 2.0% in 2022.Those surveyed also expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to rise to 3.00% next year (vs. 2.71% at Dec. 10) and 3.25% in 2022.The higher mortgage rates combined with higher home prices and persistently low inventory are likely to hurt home affordability next year. The survey forecasts that housing starts will be 1.50M, dipping from 1.53M in 2020 before rising to 1.59M in 2022.On the overall economy, the respondents see GDP growth of 3.5% in 2021 (vs. -2.7% in

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Home price growth will rise at slower pace in 2020, 2021, NAR panel says