JRE - Home Prices See Big Bounce Off 2023 Lows
2023-11-28 18:50:00 ET
Summary
- The latest S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price data for September was released today and showed a 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) increase in home prices at the national level.
- Fifteen of twenty cities saw prices rise m/m, with Detroit, New York, and Las Vegas jumping the most, and Minneapolis, Denver, Seattle, Dallas, and Portland seeing declines.
- Year-over-year, Detroit, San Diego, New York, and Chicago are up the most at 6%+, while three cities are down year-over-year: Portland, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
The latest S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price data for September was released today and showed a 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) increase in home prices at the national level.
Fifteen of twenty cities saw prices rise m/m, with Detroit, New York, and Las Vegas jumping the most, and Minneapolis, Denver, Seattle, Dallas, and Portland seeing declines.
Year-over-year, Detroit, San Diego, New York, and Chicago are up the most at 6%+, while three cities are down year-over-year: Portland, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
We highlight how these home price indices have changed over various time frames in the table below.
Home prices have jumped significantly from their lows at the start of 2023. Each of the twenty cities tracked peaked at some point in 2022 and then pulled back and made a low in either January or February of this year.
In the chart below, we show how much home prices have jumped in each region from their respective 2023 lows. San Diego and Detroit have seen home prices rally more than 10% already, while Chicago, Cleveland, and Boston are up 8%+.
Below is a look at how much home prices are currently up since February 2020 right before COVID hit.
As shown, the composite and national indices are up roughly 45% since COVID began, while Miami and Tampa - two Florida cities - are up the most at roughly 70%.
On the other end of the spectrum, San Francisco, Minneapolis, DC, and Portland are up the least since February 2020 at 30-34%.
Finally, below we show how much home prices are up in each city versus their peaks seen during the last housing bubble in the mid-2000s before the Financial Crisis.
The national index is now up 69% from its prior housing bubble peak, while Dallas and Denver are up the most at 133% and 126%, respectively.
Chicago, Las Vegas, and DC are the cities up the least versus their prior housing bubble peaks at 25% or less.
Below is a look at historical pricing for the twenty Case Shiller cities and the three national indices. Cities in green are at all-time highs.
After the mid-2000s housing bubble burst and prices collapsed following the Financial Crisis, many thought it would take generations to get back to the peak levels seen prior to the crash.
Now those prior peaks look like mere bumps in the road after the surge we've seen for housing so far this decade.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
For further details see:
Home Prices See Big Bounce Off 2023 Lows