FXY - How to trade Friday's jobs report even though the U.S. stock market will be closed

2023-04-05 15:00:39 ET

The U.S. stock market will be closed on Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. However, the U.S. government doesn't recognize the day as an official federal holiday. As a result, while stock trading may be offline, Wall Street will still receive the latest round of monthly jobs data, with March's figures set to come out on at 8:30 AM ET as usual.

The April 7 payrolls print, which covers statistics for March, is expected to slide from February’s 311K reading, with experts predicting a figure around 240K. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.6%.

How can investors react to the jobs data in real time with the most obvious avenue of trading closed?

Currency Markets

One possibility is to look at the foreign exchange market, which will remain open and live for trading. Data about the U.S. labor market will impact expectations about the country's economy and about the future of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. This, in turn, will spark movement in the dollar's value versus other major currencies.

As a result, the U.S. dollar may find itself in the crosshairs as market participants decipher the latest round of jobs data. The potential impact is showcased by the last two jobs reports, which sparked noticeable movements in the dollar index ( DXY ).

On Feb. 3, the government issued U.S. nonfarm payrolls that came in well above consensus. As a result, DXY jumped 1.1% from 101.83 to 102.92. The next jobs release, which came out on March 10, contributed to a 0.5% fall in DXY, which fell from 105.13 to 104.58.

The dollar index ( DXY ) represents the change in the value of the U.S. dollar compared a basket of currencies. However, investors can also opt to trade in individual currency pairs, with activity in foreign exchange market taking place 24 hours a day through the week on various exchanges throughout the world (although currency trading does close over the weekend).

While trading in exchange traded funds takes place on the stock market, here are some other currency-related funds that can be used for research for investors preparing a currency play following the jobs release:

• Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF ( UUP )
• WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund ( USDU )
• Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund ( UDN )
• Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ( FXE )
• Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ( FXY )
• Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ( FXF )
• Invesco CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ( FXA )
• Invesco CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust ( FXB )

Futures Trading

The Good Friday holiday will also impact futures trading. However, various Treasury note and equity futures will remain active as the jobs data comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

According to the CME, trading in Treasury futures will close at 10:15 a.m. CT, or 11:15 p.m. ET, leaving multiple hours of post-jobs release action. Meanwhile, e-mini S&P 500 futures will close at 8:15 a.m. CT, or 9:15 a.m. ET -- 45 minutes after the data comes out.

Cryptocurrency Trading

Investors can also turn to the cryptocurrency market, which operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. While cryptos don't relate directly to the payroll data, the market has often acted as a proxy for speculative assets in general. Perceptions about the future of interest rates and the health of the economy could fuel movement in digital assets like Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and Ethereum ( ETH-USD ).

For example, in the hours before the March 10 jobs report, Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) reached a mark near $19.6K, touching its lowest level since January. However, following the release of the employment statistics, the cryptocurrency saw an upswing, with momentum carrying over through the next week and a half. By March 19, Bitcoin had topped $28K.

Trader Beware

While there are avenues to trade the jobs numbers, volume will be low and that can lead volatility and boosts risk in opening new positions. Investors should keep that in mind and may want to wait until futures trading Sunday evening or Monday's open before adjusting their portfolios or trades.

Ahead of Friday's jobs report, ADP released its figures on March payrolls in the private sector. The data showed a rise of 145K jobs in the month, below the growth economists had predicted .

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