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SCHQ - Hyperinflation Is Here We Just Can't See It Yet
Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF
Most investors are convinced that all recessions are deflationary. If the economy slows, demand declines, prices fall, and bond yields collapse. This often causes a spike in long-term Treasuries (TLT) and a decline in commodities. Indeed, we have seen this occur since the March COVID-19 crash and in 2008.
However, not all recessions are the same. In particular, if they cause supply to fall with demand, then it could result in a spike in prices. Additionally, unemployment and inflation are usually inversely correlated (see Phillips Curve) because unemployment causes incomes to decline.