ZDEU - Ifo Institute Germany Forecast For 2020
A surprisingly "positive" forecast for Germany from ifo Institute this morning:
While GDP contraction for 2020 looks sharp at -4.2 percent y/y, unemployment figures appear rather robust and employment levels seem to be only weakly impacted. The forecast for current account implies subdued global demand shocks. The swing in the fiscal position is roughly 6.5 percent of GDP, reflecting emergency support measures. This is significant, and underpins shallower expected effects on employment and unemployment, as well as no deflationary dynamics in labour costs.
My view: Germany entered the pandemic crisis with a already weak economy.