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SPDN - iM's Business Cycle Index Continues Steep Decline: Update April 16 2020
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The US economy is in uncharted territory. The BCI signaled a recession warning on 4/2/2020. Regardless of the signal, we need to know how the COVID-19 pandemic has, or has not, influenced the calculations. Table 1 lists the economic data that the BCI uses and combines the components for the index in "real time," i.e. the data is only incorporated into the index at its publication date.
From above table, it is evident that the full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the BCI will only manifest itself after the March and April housing data