GIM - Imminent Yield Curve Inversions?
Editor's note: This article was originally published on Dec. 15, 2018 by Menzie Chinn here.
Around the world, some 10 year-3 month government bond yield spreads are shrinking.
Figure 1 shows ten spreads as of 4/18/2018 and 12/14/2018.
Figure 1: Ten year - three month government bond spreads as of April 18 (blue bar) and as of December 14 (red bar), in percentage points. China three month rate is CHIBOR, Australia is interest rate swap rate, euro area data is for Germany. Light green shading indicates statistical power according to Chinn-Kucko. Source: Economist for