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I think the idea of a “surprise” inter-meeting rate hike is silly in the context of modern Federal Reserve operating procedures.
Unless inflation cools a lot, the base case has to be that we are looking at 25 basis points per meeting (plus the wild card of a starting 50) for forecast horizons going out a year.
A rapid change in Fed policy could move the curve a lot in the short run, but that just will result in asset mix and issuance shifts if the curve appears stupidly priced.