INDY - India's Economy After Second Wave Of COVID-19

• The second wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus pandemic in India appears to be receding, with recorded new daily infections steadily declining from their peak of over 450,000 cases in early May. However, pressures on healthcare systems remain, suggesting that lockdowns currently in effect in most Indian states will continue through June.
• Early economic indicators suggest that the immediate hit to the economy in the June 2021 quarter will be less severe than during the national lockdown in April-May 2020, with current curbs being more targeted and the economy better adapted to function under mobility restrictions.
• However, deeper damage to household demand, uneven easing of curbs by states, and slow vaccination imply a more protracted recovery in the subsequent quarters. We project that the second wave of COVID-19 will shave off about 2 percentage points of India's growth in the financial year starting April 2021 (FY2021), with real GDP growth now expected at 7.7%, down from 9.8% in March.

For further details see: