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The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future. The fact is that no one knows what inflation will do in the short run, and all we have to go on, as yet, is fragmentary evidence that might suggest which of the competing hypotheses is more likely to be correct. The most recent data, aside from the headline CPI figures and some rough breakdown of components for April,