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The collapse in oil prices has put renewed downside pressure on breakeven inflation expectations, which are now priced at levels which we think are completely out of line with the fundamental inflation outlook facing the U.S. economy. The ProShares Inflation Expectations ETF (RINF) tracks the performance of the FTSE 30-Year TIPS Index, where we expect to see a strong recovery once near-term credit stresses abate.
The 30-year breakeven inflation rate (inflation expectations calculated based on the spread between regular and inflation-linked Treasury bonds) is now at just 1.28%. This is close to the