SPVU - Inflation May Be Ready To Rise From The Dead

2024-02-11 06:15:00 ET

Summary

• The January CPI report is expected to show a new cycle low of 2.9% year-over-year.
• Models and inflation swaps indicate a potential upside beat in January.
• Rising shipping rates and the potential for sustained high rates could contribute to higher inflation in the future, impacting bond rates and the equity market.

The January CPI report is expected to show that the year-over-year rate of change fell to just 2.9%, a new cycle low surpassing the June 2023 low of 3.0%. But several signs suggest the median estimate for this month's inflation report may be too low, the hotter-than-expected print may be coming, and inflation risks reigniting soon....

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