SIMS - Inflection Points: And Just Like That... Rising Election Risk
2024-07-26 14:10:00 ET
Summary
- Separating signals from noise in the current geopolitical environment is probably harder than ever, but there may not be great information value for investors anyway.
- Market volatility traditionally rises in election years, but returns in the six months before and after presidential elections are typically good.
- Consider themes that may be insulated from geopolitical-driven volatility like U.S. Infrastructure, Defense Tech, and Uranium.
For a brief second, it seemed like I might get away without writing an election piece this cycle. That was wishful thinking. In my annual risks piece from December, #4 was Neither Trump Nor Biden . The market consideration at the time was more about the potential for either one to be replaced at the top of their party’s ticket, and the process whereby that might happen. The implications of President Biden’s decision to drop his reelection bid are now playing out in real time. The assassination attempt against former President Trump is an entirely different story still to unfold....
Inflection Points: And Just Like That... Rising Election Risk