TESL - Inflection Points: Roll With The Changes

2025-04-24 10:55:00 ET

Summary

• The economic damage that the new administration was willing to incur in pursuit of policy goals was larger than expected, and the impact of on-again, off-again tariff reversals is meaningful.
• Companies had expected uncertainty in cost structure from tariffs, but the erosion of consumer sentiment now puts revenues at risk, making forecasting and capital investment more challenging.
• Hedged strategies and lower-beta themes can offer ways to stay in the market while reducing risk, and there may be good entry points in long-term secular growth themes.

This month’s title was the lead track on REO Speedwagon’s 1978 album You Can Tune a Piano, But You Can’t Tuna Fish. It seems oddly descriptive for an economy and financial markets grappling with very high levels of uncertainty....

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