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EDOW - Initial Claims Turn Neutral On Seasonality But No Red Flag
First Trust Dow 30 Equal Weight
As you know, I've been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months to see if there are any signs of a slowdown turning into something worse. Simply put, if businesses aren't laying employees off, those same people are consumers who are going to continue to spend, which is 70% of the total economy. So, the lack of any such increase has been the best argument that no recession is imminent.
This morning's report of 252,000 initial claims is enough to signal a caution, but historically has more often coincided with slowdowns rather