TSM - Intel: A Year Into The Gelsinger Plan

• Intel’s plan is to keep their x86 CPU business while at the same time adding TSM’s foundry business. Both parts of that are tall orders.
• Intel's foundry plan is super ambitious on a compressed timeline, and it’s not clear that help from their vendors and a two-track approach will be enough.
• The biggest threat to the plan out of their control is a crash in durables demand just as they are bringing all this new capacity on line.
• I still believe the most likely outcome is that the x86 business withers away, and the foundry remains in third place, but Pat Gelsinger has stood Intel’s culture on its head.

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