SPEU - Interpreting The Manufacturing PMI Output Indices Post-COVID
PMI surveys ask respondents to report on monthly changes in key business metrics, such as production, new orders, employment and prices. Estimating what the resulting survey indicators imply for actual changes in official economic data is not always straightforward, but by using historical comparisons we can extract powerful signals from the surveys. In this analysis we look at the manufacturing PMI output indices for the Eurozone and the UK, and demonstrate how accurate advance signals of official production data can be obtained. We also look at what this means so far for post-COVID 19 recoveries.