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The U.S. has had an extended and very impressive rally in the prices of U.S. Treasury securities. The 10-year U.S. Treasury has seen its yield move from a recent high of 3.23% in early October 2018, down to 2.22% at the end of May 2019. One of the most important questions is whether the Treasury rally is signaling that a U.S. recession is imminent. While we see U.S. real GDP decelerating into the second half of 2019, we do not yet see the U.S. moving into an actual recession in the near