BILS - Inversions And Inventory The Major Products Of October

• Market opinion about the balance of risks was transformed back in October, which not coincidentally happened to be when the flood of inventory began showing up. Neither the more pessimistic curved stance nor the buildup of inventory has changed since.
• From October 2021 inventories have been piling up, first on the wholesale level and then at retailers. For wholesalers, three out of the past five months, including the just-released advance inventory estimates for February 2022, have seen record levels of monthly increases.
• Since the US goods economy is the lone global outlier, should inventory indeed prove too much and lead to some even modest downturn in goods, the effects across the whole system risks becoming a far more serious blow (to unappreciated weak system) than it should otherwise appear.

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