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One of the largest uncertainties in the oil market today is the political situation involving Iran. With “war risk” insurance premiums rising in the Persian Gulf area, it’s no wonder why most of the speculation has to do with the potential outbreak of hostilities.
However, an equal risk to the oil market is the potential for a settlement which would result in the lifting of sanctions and opening of the floodgates of Iranian oil on the world market.
Based on DOE estimates, Iranian production averaged 2.4 million barrels per day in May, down about 1.4