GSSC - Is It Recession?

• As Q1’s third-highest inventory accumulation follows Q4’s record-high accumulation, the fact it was less, if still huge, when compared to the prior three months counts as a reduction to overall GDP.
• As has been the case since the last recession, spending on goods may be up, though spending on services is not. Americans are having to pay more for goods in order to get fewer of them, leaving them unable to complete the services recovery.
• The chances of a recession aren’t what we see in the current figures, rather the current figures are consistent with a recession trajectory and trend long since plotted out by the marketplace.

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