AFMC - Is The Hot Inflation Data In Q1 Noise Or Signal?

2024-04-27 22:50:00 ET

Summary

• The first quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation.
• Core PCE through Q1 eased to 2.9% from 3.2% in Q4.
• Until the year-over-year rates of change in core PCE and core CPI flat line, or start rising, I still expect disinflation to continue.

Thursday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose. At first glance, the risk-off response looks reasonable. But a closer look at the GDP numbers still leaves room for debate....

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