EZM - Is The Latest Surge In Stock Market Volatility Noise Or Signal?

2024-07-25 14:10:00 ET

Summary

• Fast forward to yesterday’s close for the S&P 500 Index and equities are well below their recent peak.
• The better question is whether the latest decline is the start of an extended slide or just a garden variety correction?
• The market looks set for a second-straight weekly decline.

Two weeks ago I wrote: “US stocks look overbought,” based on a variety of metrics. Fast forward to yesterday’s close for the S&P 500 Index and equities are well below their recent peak. Dumb luck? Maybe, but the better question is whether the latest decline is the start of an extended slide or just a garden variety correction? Alas, no one knows the answer. Indeed, no one ever does. But we can review the basics for developing calculated-risk estimates....

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