SPVM - Is This 'Bull Market' Real? - Weekly Blog # 822

2024-02-07 00:45:00 ET

Summary

• Depending on which market indicator is utilized, the US market has been rising since late 2021 or early 2022. One could say the trend is long enough and it could be due for a reversal.
• I tend to use the Standard & Poor's 500 as my single measurement device. It recently reached a new high of 4844.
• Applying the 3% rule, a close above 4989 is needed to confirm a new bull market. I am convinced it will happen, but possibly not now.

Government vs. Market Participants

Late last week, the Department of Labor announced that 353,000 individuals were hired. The announcement was credited with a sharp increase in US stock market indices, followed by surges in some other countries. The validity of this information was not confirmed by other data sources. The household survey showed only 170,000 people being hired, less than half the 353,000 reported by the Department of Labor. (Many professional economists in the private sector prefer to use the “household survey”. The main difference is the Labor Department uses the number of individuals receiving compensation, whereas the household survey counts the number of the people working. Under current economic conditions, the number of people with second or third jobs has been growing, resulting in a significant difference between the two sources.)...

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