JUSA - ISMs And ADPs - So Many Letters Too Few Specific Numbers

• The ISM’s Non-manufacturing PMI rose sharply in July 2021, four big points, up to 64.1 and handily beating estimates. This was in opposition to the slowdown trend which Manufacturing ISM displayed only too well two days ago. Though, the ADP release corroborates the sense of another economic slowdown.
• We’ve seen this before, not really all that long ago. Reopening begins a frenzy into which Uncle Sam pours trillions of borrowed dollars and, for a time, it begins to look like a robust economic situation moving briskly in the direction of real recovery.
• As with any scale reflation, this is enough to get extrapolated into something it never is; fed by those who uncritically believe in the idea of “stimulus”, both fiscal and monetary.
• Yet,as the months go by, and as the last Fed “helicopter” fades into memory, thepositive impact wears right off and does so shockingly fast leaving little oflonger-run economic value.

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