VLO - It's time for energy investors to talk about demand destruction
There are not enough refineries running to supply the world's demand for gasoline and diesel, so inventories are falling and margins are ~500% above any point in recent history. There isn't enough supply of oil to feed the refineries that are running, so inventories are falling, and prices are up ~70% from a year ago. There isn't enough gas or coal in Europe or Asia to stockpile ahead of winter, so prices are up 300-400% from this time last year. Subsidies can lift the price at which demand is destroyed, but without meaningful supply additions, demand will eventually fall to balance markets. Conoco (COP) CEO Ryan Lance said we were approaching demand destruction pricing for oil markets in March. Goldman wrote that the refining crisis would encourage demand destruction in June. And in JPMorgan's view, demand destruction has already arrived. Although much is written about rising gasoline prices in places
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It's time for energy investors to talk about demand destruction