KBWY - JPMorgan: The Bank You Want To Own For The Next 6 Months And Maybe Forever

2024-05-27 08:50:00 ET

Summary

• "Sell in May and Go Away" does not hold true for the S&P 500 in the last 10 years.
• In the years immediately preceding the Credit Crunch, returns in the first half of the year exceeded the second half's.
• Since the Fed started stress testing banks, second half returns have exceeded first half returns - JP Morgan has benefitted more than most.
• Over the past 10 years, 9 out of 10 Julys have been positive months for both SPX and JPM. JPM subsequently produced positive returns (on average) of 14.75% versus 6.6% for SPX.
• These facts, a fortress Balance Sheet, and recent weakness mean that now is a good time to buy JPM.

Recently, I was trying to determine if the saying, " Sell in May and Go Away" had any basis in fact. Looking at the last 10 years of data for SPY , it appears that if it ever did, it doesn't anymore. A deeper dive into the data, however, leads to the following conclusions;...

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