GAZB - June 2021: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

• In this article, I review EIA consumption and export figures, look at my estimates for April and May, and conclude with my latest forecast for June, July, and August.
• On a 12-month average basis, natural gas exports now equate to around 15.10% of total demand - a new all-time record.
• After declining by 3.7% y-o-y in March, I estimate that total natural gas consumption then edged lower by 3.16% y-o-y in April and decreased by 3.23% y-o-y in May.
• Under the latest weather forecasts, I project that total natural gas consumption in the contiguous United States will drop by 6.20% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (June to August).
• Currently, I project a supply-demand deficit in June and in August and a minor surplus in July (vs. 2020).

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