SFLA - Latest Memo From Howard Marks: Knowledge Of The Future
Originally published April 14, 2020
As I showed by using it again in last week's memo, I was impressed by the observation of Marc Lipsitch, Harvard epidemiologist, that there are (a) facts, (b) informed extrapolations from analogies to other viruses and (c) opinion or speculation. He said it in connection with the novel coronavirus, but I've been thinking about its relevance to investing.
In the past, I've defined investing as the act of positioning capital so as to profit from future developments. I've also mentioned the challenge presented by the fact that there's no such