LTHM - Lithium Miners News For The Month Of January 2023

Summary

• Lithium chemical and spodumene prices were lower the past month.
• Lithium market news - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is forecasting a small lithium deficit in 2023. Fastmarkets expects a small supply surplus to develop in 2023.
• Lithium company news - SQM to invest A$20m for 19.99% of Azure Minerals. Tianqi/IGO Lithium JV agrees to buy Essential Metals. Pilbara Minerals stellar Q4 increases cash balance by A$851m.
• Allkem's Naraha facility successfully achieved first production of lithium hydroxide, Allkem achieved federal government permitting of James Bay. Core Lithium achieves first shipment of 15,000dmt of 1.4% Li2O Direct Shipping Ore (DSO).
• Argosy Minerals plant commissioning works 90% complete and produced 1 tonne of battery quality lithium carbonate. Sigma Lithium announces initiation of commissioning of DMS processing plant, production expected to commence this April.

Welcome to the January 2023 edition of the lithium miner news. The past month saw lithium prices fall back a little as was expected due to China ending their EV subsidies. 2023 has begun with several announcements of majors buying into or acquiring lithium juniors. Several new lithium juniors to become new producers in the next 3-4 months.

Lithium price news

Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days, the 99.5% China lithium carbonate spot price was down 7.17% and the China lithium hydroxide price was down 3.09%. The Lithium Iron Phosphate (Li 3.9% min) price was down 2.62%. The Spodumene (6% min) price was down 0.46% over the past 30 days.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported China lithium prices of (battery grade carbonate - RMB 489,500 ($72,450), hydroxide RMB 500,000 ($74,000), and Benchmark stated (paywalled): "Contacts reported diverging opinions on the near-term demand outlook amid continued uncertainty over the Chinese EV industry’s recovery after the Spring Festival, which is set to depend on how COVID-19 developments play out in China and the impact of the EV subsidies ending on 1 January 2023. Benchmark notes that the supply chain is positive about the demand picture from the stationary energy storage market. This may buoy lithium demand in 2023, even if the EV industry is weaker than anticipated......."

Metal.com reported lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) price of CNY 37,066 (~USD 5,463/mt), as of January 20, 2022.

On December 14, 2022 Pilbara Minerals reported the results of their latest 10,000t spodumene BMX auction achieving an equivalent price of US$8,299/DMT (SC6.0, CIF CHINA). They also reported on December 21, 2022 securing spodumene average contract prices of US$6,300/DMT (CIF China).

China Lithium carbonate spot price 5 year chart - CNY 477,500 (~USD 70,381)

Wood Mackenzie's lithium price forecast - July 2022 ( Source )

Lithium demand versus supply outlook

2022 - UBS lithium demand v supply forecast to 2030

Lithium demand v supply forecast by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (mid 2022 forecast)

Fastmarkets lithium demand v supply forecast (as of 2022) ( Source )

BMI (Q2, 2022 forecast ) - Lithium demand to exceed supply mostly this decade

Trend Investing v IEA demand forecast for EV metals ( Trend Investing ) ( IEA )

2021 IEA forecast growth in demand for selected minerals from clean energy technologies by scenario, 2040 relative to 2020 - Increases Of Lithium 13x to 42x, Graphite 8x to 25x, Cobalt 6x to 21x, Nickel 7x to 19x, Manganese 3x to 8x, Rare Earths 3x to 7x, And Copper 2x to 3x

Rio Tinto forecasts lithium emerging supply gap (October 2021) - 60 new mines the size of Jadar will be needed

BMI demand growth 2022-2035 (in mtpa) for critical metals. Number of new mines required by 2035 - 78 new lithium mines needed

Lithium market and battery news

Some news missed from last month, on December 15, Bloomberg reported :

Ford, China’s CATL mull workaround for new US battery plant with US-Chinese tensions high......The companies are weighing a novel ownership structure under which Ford would own 100% of the plant, including the building and the infrastructure, while CATL would operate the factory and own the technology to build the cells......Such an arrangement would let the facility qualify for lucrative production tax credits under the new Inflation Reduction Act while requiring no direct financial investment from CATL.

On December 22, S&P Global reported :

Commodities 2023: Lithium prices likely to see support from tight supply, bullish EV demand.....Carbonate price to decline 10% on year in 2023: MI......

On December 27, Mining.com reported :

Three cathode chemistries to dominate $430bln-Li-ion market – report. The Li-ion market is expected to grow to over $430 billion by 2033, driven by demand for electric vehicles, a recent report by IDTechEx predicts......NMC and NCA cathodes will remain important, especially in Europe and North America...... IDTechEx expects LFP’s share of the total Li-ion market (by GWh) to increase over the next 10 years.” The document also predicts that LFP production capacity will grow at a CAGR of ~31% over the next five years, while NMC and NCA production capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~19%.

On December 28, The financial Times reported (paywalled): "World’s biggest lithium producer bets on prices staying high despite supply rush."

On December 29, Bloomberg reported :

Lithium miner sees 25% price drop in boon for EV industry. Producer margins are abnormal, Sinomine Resource chairman says. Lithium is already in retreat from a record high in November. Sinomine’s Wang said he sees lithium carbonate prices dropping to about 400,000 yuan ($57,443) a ton in 2023. Prices reached a record of nearly 600,000 yuan in mid-November......

On January 2, The Financial Times reported :

World’s biggest lithium producer bets on prices staying high despite supply rush. Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, expects high prices for the key battery metal to persist for years even as they spark a rush to expand supply.......“One of the reasons that we see things being so tight is just the market is fundamentally different,” Norris said in an interview. “In 2019, the market didn’t grow very much and it was 300,000 tonnes. Prior growth rates may have been 30,000-50,000 tonnes a year. “Today, the market grows 200,000 tonnes a year, almost the full size of what the market was back then,” Norris added, saying the average size of a new supply project was 5,000 tonnes.

On January 3, Investing News reported :

Lithium market forecast: Top trends that will affect lithium in 2023..... Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects lithium demand growth of around 40 percent in 2023 versus 2022 — a “notable step up.” Demand from China is still seen rising the fastest, but growth is set to pick up considerably in the rest of Asia. “Europe and North America will also notice a step up in demand as their downstream battery supply chains begin to develop," Jennings-Gray said.......Looking over to supply, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts some growth, but not enough to see the market balance.......All in all, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence is forecasting that the market will be in deficit, although some additional supply might ease this deficit a little. In contrast, Fastmarkets expects a small supply surplus to develop in 2023.......“While we expect a small surplus next year, we think the surplus will be absorbed by restocking and will only help reduce the overall feeling of tightness,” Adams said. Fastmarkets’ research team sees 2022 lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) demand coming in at 698,900 tonnes, with a rise to 884,400 tonnes in 2023. Meanwhile, the firm sees LCE supply rising from 679,400 tonnes in 2022 to 895,900 tonnes in 2023, creating a nominal surplus of 11,500 tonnes.

On January 4, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported :

Investment in battery gigafactories nears $300 billion since 2019 as China extends battery dominance.

On January 10, Financial Post reported :

India's foray into the EV battery market lacks some key ingredients. Shortages of raw materials from lithium to copper are hampering a multi-billion dollar bid to circumvent China’s hold on the supply chain.....The world’s second most populous country has only a fraction of the raw materials needed to satisfy domestic demand for lithium-ion batteries — forecast by Crisil to grow 100 fold by 2030 — let alone produce on a global scale......As the world moves away from gasoline-fueled combustion engines, demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt and other metals that go into lithium-ion batteries is soaring. BloombergNEF estimates that global appetite for the metals used in next-generation batteries increased 50% last year alone and will nearly quadruple by the end of the decade. Supplies are getting tight, and that’s already driving up costs. “The entry barriers are quite high,” said Jasmeet Singh Kalsi, director of Manikaran Power Ltd., which is setting up India’s first lithium refinery and scouting for nickel, cobalt and copper assets overseas. “China has captured most of it.” Manikaran could buy spodumene, a source of lithium, for $500 a ton in 2019. “Today,” said Kalsi, “the prices are around $5,000 a ton.”

On January 10, Teslarati reported :

Tesla files for $716M expansion at Giga Texas, including cathode plant......Tesla filed for four new projects on January 9, according to filings with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation. The projects are filed separately because they will expand four different facilities, the filings show. Tesla registered the projects to “Cell 1,” “Drive Unit,” “Cathode,” and “Cell Test Lab.”......Tesla has been planning to build a cell facility at Gigafactory Texas for some time. Tesla filed to build a Cathode plant at Gigafactory Texas in February 2022, filings with Travis County showed.

On January 10, Stockhead reported :

Eye on Lithium: UK’s Tees Valley heads to lithium heartland of WA to set up large chemical refinery. Subsidiary of UK-listed Alkemy Capital, Tees Valley Lithium , has been allocated land in the Boodarie SIA, about 4 kilometres west of South Hedland and 12 kilometres south of Port Hedland for its lithium sulphate ((LSM)) refinery....... “Building the Port Hedland LSM refinery will provide Australian spodumene producers with a complete mid-stream lithium refining solution with direct access to the European market through TVL’s Lithium Hydroxide refinery at the Wilton International Chemicals Park in Teesside, UK,”......Train 1 of the Port Hedland LSM refinery is set to process spodumene from Australian lithium miners to produce 40,000 tpa of primary LSM, with Trains 2-4 adding a further 120,000 tpa primary LSM production in future expansions. Construction of Train 1 of TVL’s LHM processing facility at the Wilton International Chemicals Park in Teesside, UK, the first of 4 trains planned for the site, is due to commence in 2023. Initial production of 24,000 tpa of battery-grade LHM is planned for 2025. And once completed, all 4 trains will produce a total of 96,000 tpa LHM, representing around 15% of Europe’s projected demand by 2030.

On January 10, Business Korea reported : "3 Korean battery makers reconsidering capacity expansion plans."

On January 12, Mining.com reported :

Metals prices could spike with markets so tight, Trafigura says....His comments come as mining executives warn that much more investment is needed to ensure the world has enough supplies of energy-transition metals in the next decade.....

On January 12, Bloomberg reported :

Even high battery prices can’t chill the hot energy storage sector. Battery prices rose 7% in 2022 and will remain elevated. But overall, there are more positive than negative forces acting on the fast-growing industry...... BloombergNEF expects global energy storage capacity installed in 2023 to be almost double the volume installed in 2022......

BloombergNEF forecasts global energy storage capacity installed in 2023 to be almost double the volume installed in 2022 ( source )

On January 13, The Korea Economic Daily reported :

S.Korea’s battery material exports double to $10 bn. Total profit of major EV battery and material makers is expected to more than double in 2023 as demand is likely to outpace supply.....

On January 16, Bloomberg reported :

Lithium’s next big risk is grand supply plans falling short. Market unlikely to return to balance in 2023, says Trafigura.......Five analyst forecasts reviewed by Bloomberg point to a much more balanced global market after clear shortages in 2022......

On January 21, Reuters reported :

Bolivia taps Chinese battery giant CATL to help develop lithium riches. Bolivia has chosen a consortium including Chinese battery giant CATL to help develop the South American country's huge, but largely untapped, reserves of lithium......The partnership would give CBC, which also includes mining giant CMOC, rights to develop two lithium plants, which could each produce annually up to 25,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate.

On January 24, Seeking Alpha reported : "Albemarle expects 800K-ton lithium deficit by 2030 with prices staying high."

Lithium miner news

Albemarle (NYSE: ALB )

On January 17, Seeking Alpha reported :

Albemarle to get a boost from strong lithium outlook, Deutsche Bank says.....A strong long-term outlook for pricing will help boost Albemarle shares, the analyst said Tuesday......The company can produce ~175K metric tons/year of lithium products, or 25%-30% of global capacity, and it has plans to more than double its capacity over the remainder of this decade, Begleiter noted, rating the stock as a Buy with a $290 price target. Albemarle currently trades at ~9x estimated 2023 earnings; over the past few years, the stock has traded at an average of ~26x estimated current year earnings.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE: SQM ), Wesfarmers [ASX:WES] ( WFAFY ), Covalent Lithium (SQM/WES JV)

On January 11, Azure Minerals Limited [ASX:AZS] reported :

SQM to invest A$20m for 19.99% of Azure, l ithium potential attracts major strategic investor. Global lithium producer SQM has made an initial A$4.2M investment in Azure..... SQM will invest at a price of $0.2564 per share.....This strategic investment by SQM is a strong endorsement of the lithium potential of the Andover Project (60% Azure / 40% Creasy Group) and highlights the upside potential for Andover to grow into a globally significant lithium mining and processing operation.

Upcoming catalysts:

Q4, 2023 - Mt Holland spodumene production to begin (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).

Q4, 2024 - 50ktpa Lithium hydroxide [LiOH] refinery (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).

Investors can read SQM's latest presentation here or the latest Trend Investing article on SQM here .

Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium [SHE:002460] [HK: 1772] ( GNENF ) ( GNENY )

No significant news for the month

Investors can read the latest Trend Investing article on Ganfeng Lithium here .

(Chengdu) Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. [SHE:002466], Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) is a JV with Tianqi Lithium (51%) and IGO Limited (49%). TLEA owns the Kwinana lithium hydroxide facility in WA

On January 8, Market Screener reported :

Tianqi, IGO Lithium JV agrees to buy Essential Metals. Australian miner IGO Ltd. on Monday said the joint venture it owns with Tianqi Lithium Corp. has agreed to buy Essential Metals Ltd., in a deal that values the explorer's equity at 136 million Australian dollars (US$94 million).

On January 18, Market Screener reported : "Tianqi Lithium forecasts up to 1,131% hike in FY22 profit....."

Kwinana lithium refinery JV (51% Tianqi: 49% IGO) in Western Australia

Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] ( OTC:PILBF )

On January 19, Pilbara Minerals announced :

December 2022 Quarterly Activities Report . Strong sales and improved pricing outcomes support $851.1m increase in cash balance to $2.226b..... Construction of the P680 Expansion Project progressed during the Quarter.......The Company is targeting completion of the feasibility study which will pave the way for a FID for the P1000 Expansion Project during the March 2023 Quarter....

Upcoming catalysts:

• Q4, 2023 - P680 Expansion Project set to begin production.
• Late 2023 - Plan to commission production of POSCO/Pilbara Minerals (18%, option to increase to 30%) JV LiOH facility in Korea.

Mineral Resources [ASX:MIN] ( MALRF )

Mt Marion Mine (50% MIN: 50% Ganfeng). Wodgina Lithium Mine (60% ALB: 40% MIN) restarted in mid 2022. (Note the non-binding agreement will (if completes) move Wodgina to a 50% ALB: 50% MIN JV ). The 50ktpa Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide refinery (60% ALB: 40% MIN) is due for first sales in H2, 2022 .

No lithium news for the month.

Investors can read the latest Trend Investing article on Mineral Resources here .

MinRes' production expansion targets as of Nov. 2022 ( source ) - Includes doubling Mt Marion capacity from 450-900ktpa in early 2023 and Wodgina from 500ktpa to 750ktpa (Train 3 adds 250ktpa) by mid 2023

Livent Corp. ( LTHM )[GR:8LV]

No significant news for the month.

Allkem [ASX:AKE] [TSX:AKE] ( OROCF )(formerly Orocobre)

On January 18, Allkem announced : " December 2022 quarterly activities report ." Highlights include:

Operations

• " The Olaroz Lithium Facility 2 achieved record production of 4,253 tonnes of lithium carbonate which was up 17% on the previous corresponding period (“PCP”). Half year production was also a record at 7,542 tonnes some 13% higher than the prior record in 2019.
• Lithium carbonate sales were 3,131 tonnes, generating record quarterly revenue of ~US$151 million with a gross cash margin of 90%. Excluding shipments to Naraha, third party sales for the quarter averaged US$53,013/tonne 3 FOB, up 23% on the September quarter.
• The weighted average price for third party sales of lithium carbonate products in Q3 FY23 is expected to be in line with Q2 FY23.
• In the December quarter, Mt Cattlin produced 16,404 dmt of spodumene and shipped 15,702 dmt, generating revenue of ~US$83 million 4 with a gross cash margin of 72% based on an average sales price of US$5,284/dmt CIF for SC 5.3%, which corresponds to approximately US$6,000/dmt on a SC6 CIF basis, up 5% on the September quarter. Cost of production was US$1,016/dmt FOB which was impacted by lower production volume.
• An additional US$32 million of revenue was generated from sales of 53,715 dmt of low grade spodumene concentrate from pre-existing stockpiles and processing of fine-grained ore.
• EV sales growth is expected to remain robust in 2023 given strong order books and potential pent-up demand. Supportive government targets and policies announced globally (including subsidies or tax incentives) continue to ensure strong fundamentals for future growth ."

Development Projects

• "Naraha successfully achieved first production of lithium hydroxide and product quality exceeded expectations. Progressive improvement to battery grade product is expected to occur over a 12-month period. Approximately 200 tonnes of lithium hydroxide produced during the quarter has been sold to third party customers.
• Olaroz Stage 2 reached 96% completion, pre-commissioning and commissioning activities are underway, with full commissioning activities expected to commence later in Q1 CY23. First production is planned for Q2 CY23.
• The first two strings of ponds at Sal de Vida (“SDV”) Stage 1 reached 82% completion and the EPC contract for the process plant has been awarded. Data received during the tender and award process, together with learnings from COVID and a Board review is being incorporated into the project schedule with first production currently estimated in mid-2024.
• Material progress has been achieved in the permitting of James Bay with the recent approval by the Joint Assessment Committee (Federal government) of the ESIA. Comex approval (Quebec government and CREE Nation) of the ESIA, agreement of the IBA and procedural construction permitting remain in progress. Once permits are secured, construction will commence and the Company will update guidance for first production ."

Financials and Corporate

• "Group revenue 5 for the quarter was US$265 million and group gross operating cash margin1 was approximately US$218 million (82%).
• At 31 December group net cash 6 was US$552 million up US$105 million from 30 September 2022.
• Progress continues on a proposed US$200 million project finance facility for the Sal de Vida Project by the International Finance Corporation.
• The transaction to acquire 100% of the strategic lithium tenement of María Victoria for Borax Argentina S.A (“Borax”) closed in December 2022.
• The Allkem AGM was held on 15 November 2022 with all resolutions successfully passed and the subsequent appointment of Peter Coleman as Chair.
• The government of Argentina has communicated its intention to remove the export benefits that currently apply to lithium chemical production. Whilst the timing of implementing such change and its full effect are not yet known, it is anticipated it would result in the loss of incentives in the range of 1.5% to 4% of revenue ."

Upcoming catalysts include:

• H1, 2023 - Olaroz Stage 2 expansion commissioning followed by a 2 year ramp to 25ktpa. When combined with Stage 1 total capacity will be 42.5ktpa.
• Late 2023 - Sal De Vida Stage 1 production targeted to begin and ramp to 15ktpa . SDV Stage 2&3 combined will begin about 2025 and ramp to an additional 30ktpa. Total combined when completed will be 45ktpa.
• Mid 2024 - James Bay production targeted to start.

You can read the latest investor presentation here . You can read the latest Trend Investing Allkem article here .

AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. [NA:AMG] [GR:ADG] ( OTCPK:AMVMF )

On December 22 AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV, announced : "AMG sells the first commercial LIVA Battery to Wipotec."

Upcoming catalysts:

• H2, 2023 - Stage 2 production at Mibra Lithium-Tantalum mine (additional 40ktpa) forecast to begin, bringing total production capacity to 130ktpa.
• Q4, 2023 - Lithium hydroxide facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen Germany to be commissioned. First module to be 20,000tpa LiOH.
• 2025-2028 - German LiOH facility expansion plan with Modules 2-5 (100,00tpa LiOH).

You can view the latest company presentation here or the recent Trend Investing article here .

Lithium Americas [TSX:LAC] ( LAC )

On January 5, Seeking Alpha reported :

Judge in Thacker Pass lithium mine case will make decision in next couple months...... Judge Miranda Du said she will make the judgement after hearing from the parties for the last almost three hours, she said at the hearing in Reno, Nevada on Thursday.

On January 6, Lithium Americas announced :

Lithium Americas provides update following hearing on the Thacker Pass Record of Decision Appeal. “Yesterday's hearing provided an opportunity to reaffirm our confidence that the permitting process for Thacker Pass was conducted thoroughly and responsibly,” commented Jonathan Evans, President and CEO. “As we continue to prepare for construction, we look to finalize key supply agreements and partnerships that can help to secure America’s clean energy future by providing responsible and domestically produced lithium.”

On January 23, Seeking Alpha reported :

Lithium Americas, SQM top picks at Scotiabank in bullish sector view..... Without "a slew of new advanced-stage projects moving to construction imminently, a holy grail for the industry to improve recovery rates, and/or an unprecedented pivot to improved secondary supply from recycling, it's hard to justify why prices should moderate toward the cost curve over the next five-plus years," Isaacson wrote in a bullish take on lithium (NYSEARCA: LIT ). Lithium Americas "has all the ingredients to outperform its peers in 2023," according to the analyst, noting it is "weeks away from becoming the world's newest lithium producer," as it commissions its 40K mt Cauchari-Olaroz lithium carbonate project, and the Thacker Pass project is construction-ready, with preliminary work underway.

Upcoming catalysts:

• ~End Q1, 2023 - Results from Judge Du on the Thacker Pass Record of Decision Appeal.
• H1 2023 - Cauchari-Olaroz lithium production to commence and ramp to 40ktpa. From 2025 a Stage 2 20ktpa+ expansion is planned.
• H1 2023 - Thacker Pass FS.
• 2025 - Possible lithium clay producer from Thacker Pass Nevada (full ramp by 2027/28).

NB: Ganfeng Lithium ( 51% ) and Lithium Americas ( 49% ) own the JV company Minera Exar S.A., which owns 91.5% interest and is entitled to 100% of the production from the Cauchari-Olaroz Project. The 8.5% interest is owned by Jujuy Energia y Mineria Sociedad del Estado (“JEMSE”) (a company owned by the Government of Jujuy province).

Argosy Minerals [ASX:AGY][GR:AM1] ( ARYMF )

Argosy has an interest in the Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina, targeting a fast-track development strategy. Argosy initially plans to ramp to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate starting early 2023.

On January 3, Argosy Minerals announced : " Rincon 2,000tpa Li2CO3 operational update." Highlights include:

• " 98% of 2,000tpa operational development works complete – with current plant commissioning works 90% complete and produced 1 tonne of battery quality lithium carbonate.
• Battery quality 99.76% lithium carbonate product successfully produced during current commissioning and production test-works.
• Ramp-up phase of continuous lithium carbonate production operations scheduled during current quarter and advancing toward steady-state production operations by end of Q2-CY2023.
• Argosy on-track to become only the 2nd ASX-listed battery quality lithium carbonate producer.
• Lithium carbonate prices recently trading at US$75,000/t (CIF North Asia, S&P Platts) ."

For further details see:

Lithium Miners News For The Month Of January 2023