IMCV - Looking For A Soft Landing - It's Not Likely

• Looking back at 20-plus years of Fed policy, reveals consistent cycles of building and then bursting bubbles - always months behind the curve.  This time too.
• The Fed's radical COVID response looks much like their policy following the tech bubble and the great financial crisis (GFC"), but more dramatic.  Now the bursting cycle begins.
• Discounted cash flow analysis provides one perspective on how stock prices might respond to the Fed driving higher interest rates; growth stocks fare worst.
• Despite that, it's possible to earn outsized returns while maintaining a defensive posture, structure is particularly important in this transitional environment.
• This is Part 1 of 2 parts.  Part 1 discusses Fed dysfunction and valuation implications; Part 2 will address strategies appropriate to the current climate.

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