HLUYY - Lundbeck Languishing Without Clear Drivers

• Lundbeck has been beating Street operating earnings expectations, but the core growth-driving drugs have had more mixed performances, with marketing efforts hampered by pandemic-driven restrictions.
• Normalization in marketing activities should drive improved results for Trintellix, Rexulti, and Vyepti, but the latter could still be looking at a long road to truly material profit contributions.
• The Phase III study of Rexulti in Alzheimer's-associated agitation is the biggest near-term driver; the pipeline has some interesting compounds, but they're early-stage longshots today.
• The company wants to split its shares into two new classes, allowing the controlling shareholder to maintain control while freeing up shares for M&A activity.
• Minimal revenue growth and improved margin leverage can drive an attractive share price from here, but upside rests on execution and good news from the pipeline.

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