VTV - Macroeconomic Indicators Signal A Recession
"The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions" - Paul Samuelson
Significant equity market drawdowns have not always been followed by a fundamental confirmation in form of a recession. Paul Samuelson, among others, recognized this empirical fact long ago. However, a few macroeconomic indicators do have a more reliable track record in signaling recessions than the stock market. We discussed three leading indicators for the U.S. in our most recent public write-up. Interestingly, these indicators often signaled economic weakness even ahead of the stock market.
Labor market conditions, the yield curve, and