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At the end of 2019, had we been told that a two-year pandemic was about to begin, we would have found it impossible to predict the set of returns that followed in subsequent years.
Historically, “tightening,” or “over-tightening,” policy was about corralling excessive credit growth (demand that was fueled by credit).
The yields available in U.S. and European credit are not terribly far from being able to reach that 3% to 5% target, especially if one is willing to dip into high yield segments.