VOO - Managing Economic Recovery Expectations With Payrolls Data
We're all desperate for a quick economic recovery, but desperation can be the enemy of informed thinking for looking ahead. As an example, consider recent commentary in some corners that a V-shaped economic recovery (a strong, quick bounce-back) for the US is likely because that's the usual path, based on reviewing the history of gross domestic product ((GDP)), the broadest measure of economic activity. This spin on macro history looks encouraging, but assuming GDP is the last word on economic recoveries is assuming too much.
Let's start with the history that inspires expectations for a