BDX - Managing The COVID-19 Testing Decline Will Be Tricky But Hologic In Strong Shape For The Next Chapter

• The biggest risk with Hologic today is the uncertain path for COVID-19 testing; expanding vaccination rates are driving sharp declines in testing that accounted for almost half of FQ1'21 revenue.
• Whatever the decline path for COVID-19 testing is, the pandemic drove a significant increase in Panther system placements; Hologic can leverage this with a large and growing assay/test menu.
• Businesses like Breath Health and Gynecological Surgery are likely to be more "slow and steady" contributors, though areas like breast biopsy do offer some growth potential.
• Long-term mid-single-digit revenue and FCF growth post the COVID-19 testing trough support at least an $80 share price today, and Hologic is worth a look from long-term investors.

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