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Here are the updated inflation numbers. Non-shelter core is down to 1.1%, shelter is still at 3.2%, and core CPI inflation is at 2.0%. As IW readers know, the reason this is important is that (1) shelter inflation is largely an imputed figure of rental values of owned homes that involve no cash transactions and, (2) in the era of Closed Access, in some important markets, these transfers have little effect on production.
This is the setup that I worry will cause the Fed to be behind the curve. They believe that merely stopping the