GAZB - March 2021: Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Overview And Forecast

• In this article, we review EIA consumption and export figures, look at our estimates for January and February, and conclude with our latest forecast for March, April, and May.
• On a 12-month average basis, natural gas exports now equate to around 14.80% of total demand - a new all-time record.
• After edging up by 0.3% y-o-y in December, we estimate that total natural gas consumption then increased by 2.50% y-o-y in January and jumped by 9.30% y-o-y in February.
• Under the latest weather forecasts, we project that total natural gas consumption in the contiguous United States will drop by 1.97% y-o-y (on average) over the next three months (March to May).
• Storage deficit vs. five-year average is projected to shrink by 119 Bcf by April 23 (from -67 bcf to +52 bcf).

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