DBO - March 2023 Non-OPEC Oil Production Drops
2023-07-13 05:09:00 ET
Summary
- March Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 268 kb/d to 51,434 kb/d. The largest decreases came from the Russia, 300 kb/d and Brazil 146 kb/d.
- From the low point in 2018 to the peak in 2023, China has added more than 600,000 barrels a day of extra production – more crude than some OPEC+ nations generate daily.
- The July STEO forecasts that Russian output decreased by 297 kb/d in March to 10,180 kb/d.
A guest post by Ovi
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for Non-OPEC countries. Normally, the charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics in the first week of the month. Unfortunately, the EIA was not able to update the production information for March until today. Consequently, the charts below are produced from a mixture of country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China and the July STEO and the International report. The International report was used to update the March production data.
Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated . The average from the last six months was used to project the March production numbers and extended to May in a few cases.
World oil production charts are found at the end of this post.
March Non-OPEC oil production dropped by 268 kb/d to 51,434 kb/d. The largest decreases came from the Russia, 300 kb/d and Brazil 146 kb/d.
Using data from the July 2023 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period April 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 53,204 kb/d in December 2024, which is 796 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 52,408 kb/d.
From April 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 2,185 kb/d, possibly an unrealistic forecast. According to the STEO, the major contributors to the increase are expected to be US, close to 500 kb/d and Canada close to 800 kb/d, both on the high side. Russia is expected to provide the largest drop.
March production dropped by 454 kb/d to 38,716 kb/d.
From April 2023 to December 2024, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the US is expected to increase by 1,563 kb/d.
Note that December 2024 output exceeds the pre-covid high of 39,552 kb/d in January 2020 by 416 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Ranked by Country
Listed above are the World’s 10 largest Non-OPEC producers. The criteria for inclusion in the table is that all of the countries produce more than 1,000 kb/d.
The March production drop for these ten Non-OPEC countries was 221 kb/d while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a production decrease of 268 kb/d. In March, Russia and Brazil had the largest production drops, a combined 446 kb/d.
In March 2023, these 10 countries produced 83.9% of Non-OPEC oil production.
OPEC C + C production increased by 129 kb/d in March, while it increased YoY by 462 kb/d. World MoM production decreased by 139 kb/d while YoY output increased by 1,533 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that March’s output decreased by 147 kb/d to 3,115 kb/d. April and May rebounded with May production reaching 3,201 kb/d, red markers.
Much of Brazil’s upcoming 2023 production growth of close to 100 kb/d will come from the highly productive pre-salt fields. From March 2022 to March 2023, production from the pre-salt fields increased by 134 kb/d.
According to the OPEC MOMR: “Crude oil output is set to increase through production ramp-ups in the Buzios (Franco), Mero (Libra NW), Tupi (Lula), Peregrino, Sepia, Marlim and Itapu (Florim) fields. However, offshore maintenance is expected to cause some interruptions in major fields. Petrobras has also started production at the fifth FPSO in the giant Buzios field in the deepwater pre-salt Santos Basin offshore Brazil, according to Offshore Magazine; the Almirante Barroso platform has capacity to produce up to 150 tb/d of oil and 6 million cm/d of gas and inject 220 tb/d of water.”
According to the STEO, Canada’s production rose by 10 kb/d in March to 4,633 kb/d. Production dropped in April and May to 4,443 kb/d.
The China National Bureau of Statistics reported that production during April and May was 4,205 kb/d and 4,256 kb/d respectively. March production dropped by 12 kb/d to 4,283 kb/d.
Since September 2018, China’s production has increased by close to 600 kb/d. Bloomberg notes that the “ Most Overlooked Oil Production Boom Is in China”
“Spending billions of dollars via its state-owned energy giants China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) and Cnooc Ltd., Beijing has been able to reverse the decline in domestic oil production that started in 2015, lifting output this year to a near all-time high. In doing so, the country is somewhat damping the need to buy crude overseas, complicating the efforts of Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies to control the market.
On top of extra Chinese output, OPEC+ is already battling higher-than-expected oil production from several of its own members that are under Western sanctions: Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
From the low point in 2018 to the peak in 2023, China has added more than 600,000 barrels a day of extra production – more crude than some OPEC+ nations generate daily. Pumping about 4.3 million barrels a day now, China is again the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, only behind the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada, and ahead of Iraq.
Kazakhstan’s output decreased by 9 kb/d in March to 1,903 kb/d. Production decreased in April before dropping in May to 1,808 kb/d.
Mexico’s production for March was 1,935 kb/d an increase of 6 kb/d over February. Output rose to 1,964 kb/d in May, according to Pemex.
Mexico has recently revised its definition of condensate. This has resulted in the EIA adding an extra 60 kb/d, on average to the Pemex report. The red markers include the additional 60 kb/d.
The EIA reported Norway’s March production to be 1,856 kb/d. The Norway Petroleum Directorate ((NPD)) reported that May’s production dropped to 1,781 kb/d. (Red markers).
According to the NPD : “Oil production in May was 1.3 percent lower than the NPD’s forecast and 0.8 percent lower than the forecast so far this year.”
According to this source , “The North Sea’s biggest oil field Johan Sverdrup now has the capacity to produce as much as 755,000 b/d of crude.”
“Norway’s state-controlled Equinor, which operates the Norwegian field, said it performed a successful test confirming the increased capacity this week, marking a 35,000 b/d rise from the field’s previous capacity. Equinor said it aims to maintain crude production “towards this level going forward”.
Johan Sverdrup came on stream in October 2019. A second phase started in mid-December last year, raising capacity to 720,000 b/d from 535,000 b/d.
Data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate ((NPD)) show production hit a monthly record of 714,000 b/d in March. Figures for April are not available yet, but Vortexa tracking data suggest exports of the grade exceeded 700,000 b/d last month. Loading schedules show exports will fall to 687,000 b/d in May and 697,000 b/d in June.
Oman’s production has risen very consistently since the low of May 2020. Oman’s March output was essentially flat but dropped to 1,043 kb/d in May.
Qatar’s March to May’s output was unchanged at 1,322 kb/d, possibly due to lack of updated information.
The July STEO forecasts that Russian output decreased by 297 kb/d in March to 10,180 kb/d. It further expects Russian output to drop to 9,898 kb/d by May 2023. (Green Markers). The EIA reported that Russian production dropped by 300 kb/d to 10,177 kb/d. The STEO production numbers are very close to those reported in the EIA’s international report
Using data from Argus Media , production for the Russia Ministry data was estimated. For March, Argus reported that Russian production of crude was 9,600 kb/d. If the typical Russian monthly condensate output of 900 kb/d is added to the crude production, Russian C + C in March would be close to 10,500 kb/d, a drop of 400 kb/d from February. April production was assessed at 9,700 kb/d of crude or 10,600 kb/d of C + C.
For May, the Argus Media report shows that Russian production decreased to 10,400 kb/d, after allowing for 900 kb/d of condensate.
Typically the difference between the Russia Ministry data and the EIA was 400 kb/d. Comparing the May production figures, the difference is close to 500 kb/d.
U.S. April oil production decreased by 53 kb/d to 12,615 kb/d. Some of the 53 kb/d drop, is due to the upward revision of February production to 12,717 kb/d. Output in December 2024 is expected to reach 13,237 kb/d.
Output from April 2023 to May 2024 is projected to increase by 75 kb/d. After May 2024, production is expected to increase by 547 kb/d. The majority of the 547 kb/d increase will come from the onshore L48, 474 kb/d.
In the onshore lower 48, production from April 2023 to May 2024 will drop 20 kb/d before beginning to rise to 10,901 kb/d in December 2024.
World Oil Production Projection
World oil production in March decreased by 139 kb/d to 82,194 kb/d.(Green graph).
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2024. It uses the July 2023 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. (Red markers).
The red graph forecasts that World crude production in December 2024 will be 83,427 kb/d and is 1,156 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak. Note that from March to July, production of 81,105 kb/d, production drops by 884 kb/d.
World without the US oil output in March decreased by 565 kb/d to 69,265 kb/d. April's output is expected to decrease by close to another 90 kb/d. December 2024 output of 70,190 kb/d is 2,601 kb/d lower than October 2018 output of 72,791 kb/d.
World oil production W/O the U.S. from April 2022 to December 2024 is forecast to increase by a total of 1,015 kb/d.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
For further details see:
March 2023 Non-OPEC Oil Production Drops