SFY - March Employment Update: Model Signaling Recession; Equities Unattractive
Economic Composite
I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on April 3. The report showed a decline in nonfarm employment of 701,000 in March. The number was far weaker than the consensus estimate of a loss of 100,000. Preliminary numbers for the previous two months were revised downward.
Temp employment in March fell 50,000 from the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, temps fell 4.5%. Preliminary numbers for the previous two months were essentially unchanged.
The March decrease followed weak months in January and February, when