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GSY - Market Inflation Expectations And Real Rates
Invesco Ultra Short Duration
The estimated inflation risk and liquidity premia adjusted 5 year breakeven was 1.62% as of 7/30 (when the corresponding actual breakeven was 2.56%).
Even if the market has rational expectations (in equilibrium – sometimes that’s called FIRE), that only means it’s correct on average.
Finally, I think concerns of aggregate demand shifting far into high gear (which is separate from aggregate demand far exceeding potential GDP) are abating.