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COVID turned out to be quite the economic event, and a pandemic under control promises to deliver a recovering economy by the end of 2021.
On the other hand, should the vaccinations not go according to plan and the pandemic is not declining by June 2021, the economy may not recover at the pace presently assumed by the markets.
Junk bonds are the most sensitive indicator when it comes to reflecting improving or deteriorating credit conditions, but in this economic cycle, they reflect the severity of the intervention by the central bank and the federal government.