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Core CPI continues to ride along the 2% target range, bifurcated between shelter and non-shelter prices. CPI shelter inflation is at about 3.3% over the past 12 months. The non-shelter core components are now down to 1.0% over the past 12 months.
Inflation isn't that great of a short-term signal. After all, non-shelter inflation was at or above 2% in 2008 and 2009, while nominal GDP growth was collapsing. But the period leading up to that, in 2006 and 2007, had a similar character - high shelter