CHKKF - Metals and Mining Industry Outlook - Noble Capital Markets Natural Resources Sector Review - Q4 2021

>During the fourth quarter, mining companies (as measured by the XME) appreciated 7.3% compared to a gain of 10.6% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were up 8.7% and 9.4%, respectively. Gold, silver, copper, and zinc futures prices were up 4.0%, 6.1%, 9.1%, and 8.5%, respectively, while lead was down 2.4%. For the full year, gold and silver prices declined 4.5% and 12.1%, respectively, while copper, lead, and zinc prices were up 26.4%, 21.3%, and 33.6%. Performance in 2021 was driven by base metals equities as underscored by the 33.9% price return on the XME versus -11.1% and -22.7% for the GDX and GDXJ, respectively. The S&P 500 appreciated 26.9%.The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.7% during the fourth quarter and 6.4% in 2021. The yield on the 10-year rose modestly during the fourth quarter to 1.51% and was up 59.5 basis points compared to year-end 2020. While a rise in the U.S. dollar and treasury yields are headwinds for gold, we believe investors may view precious metals more favorably in 2022 to protect portfolio values from potential volatility in equity markets, an uncertain path for inflation, and the risk of Federal Reserve monetary policy errors. While the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will end monthly bond purchases in March and could raise interest rates three times in 2022, we think market expectations are partially baked in and investors will likely focus on real interest rates which are expected to remain low. Read More >>