QVMS - Mid-Year Outlook: Policy Panic Again

• Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy.
• USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the greenback in the form of sanctions against Russia could undermine its de facto role as global reserve currency.
• Consumer strain is becoming visible in real-time spending data. Our idea list is getting longer, and while we never wish for market downturns, value stocks often do very well from the point when the economy is in the beginning stages of a recession as sentiment washes out.

For further details see: