PSLV - Monetary Metals Gold Brief 2022

• Relative abundance of gold indicates a soft market, and likely precedes a falling price. Relative scarcity indicates a stronger market, and typically precedes a rising price. This analysis helps predict the price for the short term, because the model focuses on what is happening.
• But for longer-term trends in gold price, we need to understand why it’s happening. For that we turn to broader macroeconomic analysis on inflation, interest rates, the madness of central banks and even wildcards like Bitcoin.
• This year, we have the toughest price call to make of any that we have done. On the one hand, the promise of rate hikes could cause all sorts of things to crash. On the other hand, plate tectonics is a force on the gold price.

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