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The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper to gold ratio started to fall. Those are all classic market signals of an economic slowdown. Some of those have moderated since the beginning of the year though and today we seem to be standing at a crossroad. If the